做不到自己宣揚的政策就可能會失敗。例如，平常隨口說出啊，規定Put只下20口，最多輸150萬，結果呢? 做不到。0403事件就出事了。
why option sellers oftern lose big? 我問grok
Option sellers often lose big due to the inherent risk-reward structure of options trading and the dynamics of market movements. Here’s a concise breakdown of why this happens:
Unlimited Risk, Limited Reward:
Option sellers (writers) collect premiums upfront, which is their maximum profit. However, their potential losses are theoretically unlimited (for call sellers) or substantial (for put sellers) if the market moves sharply against them. For example, a call seller faces massive losses if the stock price skyrockets.
Leveraged Exposure:
Options are highly leveraged instruments. A small price movement in the underlying asset can lead to exponential losses for the seller, especially if the option moves deep in-the-money.
Unexpected Market Volatility:
Option sellers are exposed to sudden market events (e.g., earnings surprises, geopolitical shocks, or macroeconomic data releases) that cause large price swings. These can push options from out-of-the-money to in-the-money, leading to significant losses.
Time Decay Misjudgment:
Sellers rely on time decay (theta) to profit as options lose value over time. However, if volatility spikes or the underlying asset moves unexpectedly, the premium collected may not cover the losses, especially for naked or under-hedged positions.
Overconfidence and Under-Hedging:
Many sellers underestimate the likelihood of extreme market moves (black swan events) and fail to hedge adequately. Selling naked options or over-leveraging without proper risk management amplifies losses.
Margin Calls and Forced Liquidation:
Selling options often involves margin accounts. Sharp market moves can trigger margin calls, forcing sellers to liquidate positions at unfavorable prices, locking in losses.
Skewed Risk Profiles:
The market often prices options with implied volatility that underestimates tail risks. Sellers may be tempted by seemingly "safe" premiums, but rare, high-impact events can wipe out months of gains in a single trade.
Example:
A trader sells a naked call option on a stock at a $100 strike price, collecting a $2 premium. If the stock unexpectedly jumps to $150 due to a takeover rumor, the seller must cover the option at a much higher price, incurring a loss far exceeding the $2 premium.
Mitigation Strategies:
Hedging: Use spreads (e.g., credit spreads) to cap potential losses.
Position Sizing: Limit exposure to avoid catastrophic losses.
Risk Management: Set stop-losses or use defined-risk strategies.
Volatility Awareness: Avoid selling during high-uncertainty periods (e.g., earnings season).
In short, option sellers lose big when they underestimate the potential for large, unexpected market moves and fail to manage the asymmetric risk of their positions.
雙賣不如賣單邊，有時候。因為雙賣很容易錯邊，追求Delta中性是自我安慰。
太隨性調整實在不好。
不當佈局，佈局不當。不當調整，調整不當。賣Call追及力太慢等等。
在市場給定的一些震盪盤確實會因為不斷調整而失敗。有時候堅持20口是很難的，在不斷調整的過程都會想recoup一些損失。結果讓口數放大了。
whipsaw market will kill you, 特別是不當調整及調整不當的介入。
沒什好聽的，打到價平就停損，但轉倉一樣要有次序，不能單憑運氣。
在結算日因為重挫而失敗，8/20，9/26。避不開嗎? 繞不開嗎?
一個中型的失敗，許多小型的失敗，就影響了長期的生存