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標題: 我問gpt為何賣方總是失敗，首先它否認這句話是事實 [打印本頁]

作者: sec2100 時間: 2025-10-13 07:13
標題: 我問gpt為何賣方總是失敗，首先它否認這句話是事實
我問:why option seller fail all the time?

ChatGPT 說：

Option sellers don't fail all the time, but many retail option sellers do eventually lose money — and sometimes catastrophically — because of a few key reasons. Let's break this down.

✅ First, understand how option selling works:

When you sell options (calls or puts), you're taking on obligation in exchange for premium (money up front). You're essentially betting that something won’t happen (like the price moving too far up or down).

Sell a call: You're betting the stock won’t go above a certain price.
Sell a put: You're betting it won’t go below a certain price.

❌ Why many option sellers fail1. Limited Reward, Unlimited Risk

You collect a small premium (say, $100).
But if the trade goes against you, the loss can be massive (thousands).
Especially true for naked call selling — theoretically unlimited loss.

2. Low Probability ≠ No Probability

Selling out-of-the-money options has a high win rate (70%–90%), but the few losers can wipe out years of small gains.

One big move (earnings surprise, news, market crash) can destroy an account.

3. Poor Risk Management

Many sellers don’t hedge or cut losses.
Some double down on losing trades (martingale approach), thinking the market “won’t go further.”
This works until it doesn’t.

4. Overleveraging

Options give leverage. Sellers often trade more contracts than they should.
A 10% move in the underlying can cause 100%+ loss in your position.

5. Lack of Understanding of Volatility

Option pricing is based on implied volatility (IV).
Selling options when IV is low leaves no room for profit when volatility spikes (e.g., during market fear).

6. Black Swan Events

Rare, unpredictable events (e.g., COVID crash, Flash Crash, war news) blow up unhedged short positions.
These events are rare — but when you're selling premium regularly, it's only a matter of time.

✅ Who doesn’t fail?

Professional market makers: They sell options with models, hedging, and diversified portfolios.
Hedged retail sellers: Use spreads, defined risk strategies (like iron condors, credit spreads).
Disciplined traders: Use strict risk management, avoid earnings plays, and cut losers early.

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