牛頓也怕錯過了什麼(Fear Of Missing Out)
fomoHowever, after he exited, South Sea stock experienced one of the most legendary rises in history. As the bubble kept inflating, Newton allowed his emotions to overtake his previous logic and he jumped back into the shares. Unfortunately, it was near the peak.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/newton-physics-market-bubble
當你的朋友賺錢時，你fomo，可能是高點到之前，最後出場如果不慎，就會出大錯。 Newton allegedly said that he could “calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” It is not hard to see the similarities between today and the previous market bubbles in history. Investors are currently chasing “new technology” stocks from Zoom to Tesla, piling into speculative call options, and piling into leverage. What could possibly go wrong? 本帖最後由 sec2100 於 2020-9-20 11:08 編輯
The Speculative Cycle
Charles Kindleberger suggested that speculative manias typically commence with a “displacement” which excites speculative interest. The displacement may come from either an entirely new object of investment (IPO) or from increased profitability of established investments.
The speculation is then reinforced by a “positive feedback” loop from rising prices. which ultimately induces “inexperienced investors” to enter the market. As the positive feedback loop continues, and the “euphoria” increases, retail investors then begin to “leverage” their risk in the market as “rationality” weakens.
The full cycle is shown below.
Like all bubbles, it ends when the money runs out.” – Andy Kessler
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