標題: 未來無法預測，只能管好自己 [打印本頁] 作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 11:28 標題: 未來無法預測，只能管好自己 Most trading, except those that have an arb strategies, are trying to predict the future based on the the past and present data sets of information. Then you are making assumptions that what happened in the past, will repeat that pattern over the same time period that happened before. The problem is that the future is unpredictable. You can't be right all the time and the past does not repeat in the same way all the time. You need to find a process to use the past to be right more than wrong and manage your risk, to be around to be right again. That requires good information, a good process to use that data, discipline and enough money to be wrong. Too many trader do not have enough of each to make it.
The first reason is because there is a finite amount of money. You can't create money in the market, it has to come from someone else's pocket (unless you are investing in cooperate retained earnings).
Then you have to think how the market evolves. The smart people will make money and grow while the not as smart people will die out. So you are trading in a place that is dominated by the smartest people/computers.
Lastly, from reading alot of comments on this site, people are trying to ski with a snowboard. Of course that will be hard! You should not trade in an enviornment/ a strategy where you do not have the right tools. So many people want to become day traders using tools/ideas from the 1970's. Imagine doing the electrical work in a house with a screw driver vs a plug in drill vs a cordless 18 brush Milwaukee. The guy using the screw driver will be like "damn this is hard" while the guy using the cordless 18 brush Milwaukee will be working on the second home and most likely his second (much better looking) wife.
Ps. Emotions are so last century, I think that is the least of a modern traders problems作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:01
像機器一樣思考和交易
Positive mindset comes from positive expectancy . Most people think their problems are emotions , losing is emotional no doubt . But i think most peoples issues come from a lack of an emperically proven rules based edge that is repeatable . You probably dont need Mark Douglas , most likely you need some sort of quantitative , systematic training . Maths
Every trader new or old should read
Thinking, Fast and Slow — By Daniel Kahneman
You need to have an idea of what to do before it happens , thinking logically in the moment is difficult . All important decisions should not be made under stress . Know what you will do under a set of circumstances before it happens , be a machine with no prejudice or biases . Fear and anger have no place in trading作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:03
sle，美國資深衍生性商品交易員，叫大家沒事不要亂交易，沒有不要做預測
I doubt anyone gets there easy (I know a few professional musicians). It's the "swan effect" - while it looks like the swan is gliding effortlessly, his legs are paddling frantically under the surface.
Trading is hard because you are making predictions. That's hard enough.
Trading is hard because you are predicting how the crowd is going to react to the future, which is even harder.
Trading is hard because, unlike investing, it's naturally adversarial. You are competing with a bunch of other players that are all trying hard to separate you and your dollars.
Trading is hard because even if you have a statistical edge, the path dependency might knock you out.
What did I miss?作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:05
沒有一套會贏的系統，不能隨便進場
Absolutely that's why it is so hard. When I suggest that Random Walk is still the best description of price movement, even with it's well known flaws, people get pissy. I do concede that there is just enough non-randomness in markets that it might be possible to exploit with TA methods. However, as PistolPete has pointed out, you should empirically prove your approach results in a positive expectancy method before committing too much of your life or your hard earned money. Prove it to yourself, not me or this board.作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:08
不冥想的輸家，不思改進的輸家，永遠是輸家
Meditate on this nugget of Zen brilliance from one of the real masters.
"A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That's the kind of thing winning traders do."
Ed Seykota作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:10
不要太自信，也無需恐慌，像個機器人
I always found the emotional aspect the hardest, especially if you are risking your own hard earned capital. Too much complacency in the good times and too much fear in the bad times can wreck some havoc in the best of us and that’s in isolation from social or family pressure. Add those in and you virtually have to become a robot.作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:11
先有一個贏的方法，但有獲勝的可能
I believe trading is hard for the following reasons:
1. Because the lack of time the trader may have to study the charts and find a profitable strategy over X amount of trades. Assuming everyone works a full time job, it will take a very long time study charts and test different ways to make money.
2. Trying too many different trading methods and getting confused.
3. Trading real money with out any proof of making money in demo.作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:13
你先要有足夠的耐心及信心訓練，才能得到夏普指數2
by sle
For sure. Also, I think a lot of people underestimate how much patience and self confidence is required for this job. Even if you have a strategy with a long-term Sharpe of 2, it's hard to distinguish it from noise on a day to day basis. 作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:24
這六點橫在眼前，要成為贏家免談
Most people don't have enough capital, or current income to support the fight
There is no real place to practice, you are competing against some sophisticated MotherF*****
You have no edge, or have not taken the time to develop a real edge
you are not patient enough to execute the edge even if you have one
It takes many many years of study to get really good, people don't have the patience to take the time to learn
People are lazy作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:35
海歸(同音)操作法把自己逼向海角
Turtle trading is dead in fact its almost a scam caused by pure luck , these turtles just lucked out starting their trend thing at the start of the biggest 15 year bull market ever . Delete turtles from mind , they only making money selling books these days , I had a conversation with Russell Sands ( one of original turtles) a few years back and he was in a huge drawdown , I suggested some quantitative methode to improve his results , he lost the plot , he reacted like i was suggesting joining a Cult . Irony was that he was the cult . true story作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 13:49
傾聽眾生言，才能解放自己
For somebody who is not making money as he finds trading hard, anybody who makes money is bragging. The only way to confirm that trading is not hard is by confirming that you have a good system. The road to finding the edge for profitable trading is hard, not the trading in itself.
You said "honesty would be appreciated". But what you mean apparently is that only people who struggle also can reply; as profitable traders put salt in the wound. Reality can be hard and make you feel crap. But that might be a wake up call for you, and maybe you should question yourself as a trader or change tactics. It took me a decade to become profitable.
What you see as crap might be very valuable and good information for you. Many people see positive comments as valuable and negative (but well funded) comments as crap. Maybe they have problems with their ego. You should always put everything in question if you have problems, and not selectively what you hope is the problem, or to protect yourself. If you don't do that you might never improve your trading as you deny the real problem: yourself.
In the decacde that I struggled to become profitable I questioned myself many times and received sometimes very unpleasant comments. But analyzing ALL the received comments brought me where I am now. Selectively using comments would have left me where I was at the beginning: nowhere.作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-3 15:00
交易比很多其他職業都難，而且不能受人影響，要學會獨立判斷每一次不同的市場際遇
As others have said, it's not that trading successfully is hard, but it's the journey to make it to the level where trading becomes systematically easier is what is brutally hard.
Most people don't understand that successful long term trading is one of the most difficult things to achieve simply because you are not rewarded for rote memorization like the vast majority of occupations. If you have a sharp memory, you can do quite well in most fields like legal, business, engineering, medical, etc, where solutions of past case studies can be directly applied to current problems.
That vast majority of occupations can be mastered via rote memory plus emotional control and discipline.
Trading absolutely demands not pure memorization, but insightful understanding of market correlations and nuance to the point where you will be able to piece together a trading method. The solution will most likely be counter-intuitive and that means you also need the emotional control and discipline to properly develop and use it.
Since you arrive at these solutions via insight rather than brute force study/memorization- the great difficulty lies in being able to free your mind to get past limiting beliefs and expectations. This can take years and decades to do, if ever.
I can't speak for others, but in my own experience, I can see that when natural solutions starting coming to me, I casually mentally discarded them because they didn't fit my expectation of what a solution should look like based on the books and videos I studied about trading. I unknowingly trapped myself in a mental prison based on others beliefs and expectations. This is the normal human condition, similar to the movie THE MATRIX. Breaking free of that prison and opening your mind up to true problem solving with no preconceived expectations is the hurdle that stops many from reaching success and what makes learning how to trade feel like a hamster wheel of futility.