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標題: 「選擇權賣方交易總覽」一書作者二天前破產 [打印本頁]

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 13:15
標題: 「選擇權賣方交易總覽」一書作者二天前破產
本帖最後由 sec2100 於 2018-11-18 15:02 編輯

https://youtu.be/-qGvPRX270A

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 13:23
"Don’t Have the Time or Expertise to Sell Commodities Options Yourself?
If you are like most investors, you are not a professional trader. That of course, does not mean that you wouldn’t like to enjoy the advantages that professionals enjoy. As a client of OptionSellers.com, you can enjoy the best of both worlds.

If you are a high net worth investor who does not have the time or expertise to sell commodity options on your own and believe that hiring top expertise is the first, best investment you can make, then a managed option selling account at OptionSellers.com may be for you. We are your professionals. In fact, here you gain a full team of professionals working on your behalf towards a mutual goal: your success.

Here you will meet and consult (by phone or in person) personally with the authors of McGraw-Hill’s The Complete Guide to Option Selling, work out a full trading plan for your account and have it implemented directly by head portfolio manager James Cordier and his team...

Benefits of Joining “The Family”
Unlike many investment houses, you won’t find 75 brokers sitting in a “phone room” here. Here you work with a tight knit team who knows you by name and your objectives by heart. Once you’re in, you’re one of our family. One of us. One of the elite. You’re an Option Seller. And you are treated as such.

We do not offer “self directed” accounts nor do we offer “discount” rates. There are plenty of places that offer that service if that is what you are after. What you will get here is a managed portfolio that sells deep out of the money options over a basket of meticulously researched, diversified commodities markets.

Your account is monitored and managed full time – directly by us – primarily James Cordier himself. Action is taken in the account if a new opportunity presents itself or a risk parameter is triggered. There is no action required on your part except to watch your account (if you like) and participate in a periodic progress evaluation and update. At the same time, you maintain ultimate control over your account and can direct us to start/stop or alter your trading plan at any time...."

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 13:28
本帖最後由 sec2100 於 2018-11-18 13:32 編輯

JC (James Cordier): I've been trading commodities for 30 years. In the beginning I was attracted to the high leverage of futures trading but the volatility was scary. So I switched to options on commodities instead. Once I realized that 80% of them expire worthless I started selling commodity options instead of buying them. After having success with that strategy I founded OptionSellers.com in 1999.

OptionSellers.com is a licensed CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) that offers high net worth clients SMAs (separately managed accounts) where the strategy is selling options on commodities to generate income.

BTS: What kind of options are you selling?

JC: We sell far out-of-the-money naked puts and calls, as well as strangles and condors on about 10 different commodities.

BTS: Which commodities?

JC: We mostly trade metals (gold, silver), energy (gas, oil), and food (coffee, cocoa, sugar, corn), plus a couple of others.

BTS: How has it been going?

JC: We target 25% return per year. In 2015, which just ended, we achieved 28% return for our clients (net of fees). Which is good considering the stock market returned about 2% and most of the hedge fund guys had a lousy year.

BTS: Can you take me through a typical transaction?

JC: Sure. If we felt that gold was overvalued, for example, then we could sell calls that were 50% to 100% out-of-the-money and expire in 6-9 months. We might get $700 for the call and the margin requirement is around $1000. A single contract of gold controls 100 ounces, so this is an option on about $100K of underlying value.

BTS: Naked or covered call option?

JC: For this example, naked. However, commodity options this far out of the money don't move dramatically like at-the-money stock options. We also incorporate a number of credit spread type of trades, which can offer a limited risk aspect.

BTS: Do you make any trade adjustments once you've put the trade on?

JC: Yes. If the trade moves against us and the value of the option doubles then we will either exit or roll, depending on whether or not we still like the fundamentals. If the trade moves in our favor then once it has lost about half its value we might layer on another one (keeping the original as well). Once the option is down around 10% of what we received for it, we'll buy it back to close it out.

Mind you, this is not day trading... these are longer term positions and sometimes we buy them back when they still have 90-120 days until expiration. Not a lot of in-and-out trading going on. The advantage of these longer dated options is that you can let time work in your favor to reverse short-lived spikes or drops.

BTS: What about diversification and use of margin?

JC: Typically we hold positions on 6-8 commodities at a time. We don't use maximum margin. Our goal is to take an aggressive investment vehicle and manage it conservatively.

BTS: What is the difference between selling options on commodities vs. selling options on stocks?

JC: We sell options that are much farther out of the money than most people do with stocks. We often sell strikes that are 50% to 100% out of the money. In addition, the leverage in commodities allows investors to get much bigger premiums with substantially smaller margins.

BTS: What about taxes?

JC: They are taxed with a 60/40 rule: 60% as long term capital gains, 40% as short term capital gains. So they get better tax treatment. Plus, you can use commodity options in retirement accounts, just like stocks.

BTS: Why would someone want to sell commodities options instead of stock options?

JC: We would say "in addition to" rather than "instead of", and many people do it for diversification from stocks. Others do it to target the higher returns. Typically our clients are putting about 15%-20% of their overall portfolio into this kind of investment.

BTS: Some commodities, like gold, have ETFs that trade like stocks. Can't someone just buy GLD and write covered calls against it?

JC: Yes, that's one strategy. But we find the risk/reward of selling options on gold futures is better than selling covered calls on GLD (the ETF).

BTS: There's been a lot of noise in the press about the price of oil. What are your thoughts for oil in 2016?

JC: Oil is one of the 10 markets we follow. We trade it quite a bit. It's been a crazy ride from $120 per barrel down to $30. The reason, we feel, is not because of China or the Middle East. We believe it's because the US has increased production from 5 million barrels per day to 10 million. And these other countries just have to sell at any price to keep their government budgets somewhat afloat.

Crude oil is often weak in December or January. 10-15 years ago you'd never see it fall in December or January because we needed it for heating. But now natural gas fills some of that role. We feel that Iran coming online with new supply is already priced in.

Our net opinion is that we think there will be a rally in oil going into the spring and summer driving season. We believe it will trade north of $40 per barrel by June or July. In order to capitalize on that belief we've been selling naked puts at the $22 and $23 level for June and July. We can collect $600 or $700 per contract, with about $1000 in margin requirement. Oil contacts are for 1000 barrels, so about $30K of underlying commodity per contract.

...

BTS: You've written a 320-page book called The Complete Guide To Options Selling. Tell me about it.

JC: Sure. It was first published by McGraw-Hill in 2004. It's now out in its new, fully updated 3rd edition and has been translated into 6 languages. You can get a copy at OptionSellers.com/Book. It talks about all aspects of selling options. About 1/4 of the book is about selling options on stocks but most of it is about selling options on commodities.

We spell out exactly how it works, how you execute the trades, the risks involved, etc. Once you're done with it you'll know enough that you can start selling options on commodities. It's meant to teach people how to do it themselves.

We have another book coming out February 1st called Option Selling On Steroids. It's exclusively for stock option sellers who want to learn commodities option selling. We will be offering some initial, complimentary copies on our website this month at OptionSellers.com

BTS: Excellent. Thanks for your time today, James.

For more information on selling options on commodities, please visit OptionSellers.com.

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 13:31

sec2100 發表於 2018-11-18 13:28
JC (James Cordier): I've been trading commodities for 30 years. In the beginning I was attracted to ...

100倍的槓桿賣價外六個月到期深價外的黃金Call，找死。

作者: 半杯水 時間: 2018-11-18 14:12
本帖最後由半杯水於 2018-11-18 14:54 編輯

應該是這個影片
真是個該死的傢伙。

To think naked sell is safe is simply ignorant.
To think one can manage such ignorance is purely arrogant.

Bottom line: why the hell would anyone hire someone to shoot his own horse?

Do the investing yourself if you can find guaranteed alpha. If not, just long passive equity fund or ETF unleveraged and apply dolloar cost averaging techniques. Over the long term, this will most likely outperform any other method you ever tried or learned.

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 15:00
https://www.johnschapman.com/inv ... ment-loss-recovery/

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 15:05

半杯水發表於 2018-11-18 14:12
應該是這個影片
真是個該死的傢伙。

謝謝半杯水，已更正。

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 15:07
On November 15, 2018, OptionSellers.com notified its investors in an email entitled “Catastrophic Loss Event” that it not only lost all their money, but that they would also owe money to Intl FC Stone for margin calls. According to OptionSellers.com, they lost a substantial portion of their investors’ assets due to a short call position in crude oil that, according to Optionsellers.com “was so fast and intense that it overwhelmed all risk measures in place.” It then informed investors that they have a debit balance in their accounts which they need to bring back to zero by paying INTL FC Stone the difference. So, in addition to trying to process the news all their money is gone, they also have INTL FC Stone breathing down their necks demanding they pay the money they owe for its margin calls.

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 15:08
Tampa-based OptionsSellers.com touts itself as premier and highly experienced commodities options trading firm. The firm’s president and head trader, James Cordier, explained in a recent interview: “Our goal is to take an aggressive vehicle and manage it conservatively.” Unfortunately, it did not trade options conservatively. It traded “naked” rather than “covered” options, leaving investors subject to unlimited exposure. This unlimited exposure is what caused to lose all their money and more in the last few days. Thus, OptionSellers.com and its principals negligently engaged in a risky trading strategy that was unsuitable for its clients and breached its fiduciary duties to them by putting its interests ahead of its clients.

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 18:17
最後一周的投資人報告，他有點像去刑場前的最後告別。

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 18:23
他應該是賣天然氣期貨的Call被抬出去的，請看天然氣可怕的漲幅。

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 18:31
Can't believe. This guy's been doing options for 20 years since 1999. He's a regular contributor on Marketwatch telling people why options on crude has never failed investors. And he's a regular contributor to CNN, Wall Street Journal, CNBC, etc. And he has published his book year after year "Complete Guide to Option Selling" on sale on amazon.ca. How can he not know the potentially unlimited risk of naked short options??!!!

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 18:32
He basically went all-in, fully leveraged on a naked short call on CL futures and got into a "short squeeze" due to a rogue wave and it was apparently so intense so fast that it wiped their entire fund and got margin-called by their broker so now not only he lost every single penny of all of 290 of his clients, his clients now even owe money to the broker of hedge fund.

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 18:34
It is not about big brains. It is about arrogance. Stay humble no matter how good you are. Arrogance can kill you financially.

作者: 半杯水 時間: 2018-11-18 20:00

It is not about big brains. It is about arrogance. Stay humble no matter how good you are. Arrogance can kill you financially.

Extremely well said.

我相信他一定認為，會出現那種幾乎不可能出現的走勢機率只有 0.000001%，所以重押所有的資金簡直就是 easy money to rip big bucks。如果真被他押過關了，接下來又是上節目，大肆宣揚, "Look how well my fund is doing and why it is so good to invest in my fund."

只可惜，策略中的死門，no matter how small it is, 只要被壓中了，必死無疑。

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-18 20:02

半杯水發表於 2018-11-18 20:00
Extremely well said.

我相信他一定認為，會出現那種幾乎不可能出現的走勢機率只有 0.000001%，所以重押 ...

謝謝半杯水提示。

所有成功的賣方，都不會出書。書書必是必死的前兆。

但很多不出書的賣方基金，也倒了。

所以，賣方只要做的跟說的不一樣，十年內炸毀的機率很高。

作者: 半杯水 時間: 2018-11-19 11:02
本帖最後由半杯水於 2018-11-19 11:06 編輯

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTFBmGA2kjE

原始檔案應該是被拉掉了，不過有個長期留意他的人，做了個簡單的 documentary type of video.
And this video got some very good points.

"Always consider the worst case scenario."

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-19 12:10

半杯水發表於 2018-11-19 11:02
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTFBmGA2kjE

原始檔案應該是被拉掉了，不過有個長期留意他的人，做了個 ...

原連結拿掉了。

以下是關於天然氣期貨的緊急狀況報導:

https://www.ft.com/content/589157d8-e8ea-11e8-885c-e64da4c0f981

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-19 13:54
http://www.optiontradinglaw.com/

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-19 13:55

半杯水發表於 2018-11-19 11:02
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTFBmGA2kjE

原始檔案應該是被拉掉了，不過有個長期留意他的人，做了個 ...

半杯水，謝謝關注。

賣方很不適合幫別人代操，十個有九個掛掉。

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-19 18:40
That shouldn't be puzzling to most traders. Everyone has experience of doing that.

Letting losses run is a deeply ingrained natural human tendency and most of us will be susceptible to it even after 30 years of trading.

Our only hope is making risk management a core part of every trade. So we don't fall victim to to this trap.

But if you have a very high win rate and large losses are very rare, you are going to eventually feel you don't need worry about risk management so much.

Personally i trade a system with a win rate of around 35 to 40%. The importance of risk management is obvious when you have such a low win rate and long losing streaks, it is harder to become complacent about it.
資料來源: elitetrader.com

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-19 18:43
They probably, have been selling naked calls for years and figured that they have it in the bag! However, the risk profile for selling naked calls is the risk is unlimited to the upside! When, there is a big run up, now you have to cover quick because the losses keep piling on! If the calls are thinly traded, you are at the mercy of the call sellers who can jack the call option prices sky high knowing you have to pay to exit! And if you are stuck in deer in headlights mode and paralyzed in fear, you now double, triple your losses because you cannot pull the trigger to get out with the huge losses!

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-19 18:59
Sorry for your losses. I had suspicions Optionsellers.com did not tell investors the whole story. Selling naked calls is very risky as a trading strategy and losses to the upside is unlimited! Any options book will tell you that. They certainly, did not do enough to mitigate any possible losses to themselves and their clients, that is for sure!

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/t ... watch.327091/page-6

作者: sec2100 時間: 2018-11-19 19:58
他出事前的名言:

"Stocks are great, until they aren't," proclaims the now 'dark' website of Tampa-based OptionsSellers.com, explaining to 'high net worth investors' that "options are better but most make the mistake of buying them."

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