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標題: SB這個人是裸賣選擇權者，但下面他這文章寫的很好。 [打印本頁]

作者: sec2100 時間: 2019-1-23 20:00
標題: SB這個人是裸賣選擇權者，但下面他這文章寫的很好。
本帖最後由 sec2100 於 2019-1-23 20:07 編輯

我的導讀:

以下是他在elitetrader.com發表的一篇文章，他的文章常常引起很多人討論，正反兩面皆有。我觀察他一陣子了，他的娛樂性相當夠。

Fellow traders,

Never give up. If you study long enough, stay small, don't lose all of your capital, and seek wisdom from those who have been successful, one day you will have the "aha" moment. It's that moment when you no longer see the forest, but you actually see the trees and the butterflies, and the squirrels.

Unfortunately, most people will never be around long enough to have their own "aha" moment. They will either blow out their account or get frustrated and quit. But for a precious few, pressing onward will be a priceless transformation of thought and process.

Trading is hard. To complicate this, you search around for information and you'll find plenty of advice from the 99% who don't know what they're doing. Then they'll try to sell you a strategy or a signal and you so want to learn this stuff, that you open your wallet to the latest, greatest strategy or guru.

You'll eventually chase the rabbit down the technical analysis hole. Once you check in, you never check out! Beware! That's a dangerous and never ending hole.

You'll chase new and shiny things and new and shiny people. You'll spend hours on youtube searching for the holy grail. It doesn't exist.

But if you keep working and studying long enough, you will wake up one day and it will all make sense. You will realize that you don't know anything. You don't know what the market will do today or tomorrow. Be at peace with this realization. It's okay. It is very liberating to finally arrive at this conclusion.

Back testing, paper trading, studying, watching videos, listening to podcasts . . . all of these can be helpful and engaging. But then the day comes when it all seems to click. This is not to say that you don't have losing trades. We all have losers. But you learn to embrace your losers and realize that they are just part of this wonderful game. You start putting the probabilities in your favor. You realize that let your winners run and cut your losers early is the same old garbage recycled by every so-called "expert."

In the end, it's all math, statistics, and managing your emotions. That's it. Math and statistics can give you the edge. Controlling your emotions will allow you to stay strong and committed when it seems the math and statistics are failing.

Look at the picture long enough and you'll get the answer you've been waiting on.

Happy Trading!

Sweet Bobby

出處:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-aha-moment.329021/

作者: sec2100 時間: 2019-1-23 20:14
有人不同意他。

Sweet Bobby,
I disagree with this, politely. I do at times know what is going to happen tomorrow and the next hour and next 60 hours. There is an art to it and it takes time and energy to learn.

I don't know where you stand, but traders giving up on trying to understand directional moves and market prediction and settling with naked premium selling is dangerous. These traders struggling and giving up on predicting directional moves and rotating to the "holy grail" of premium selling is a dangerous recipe.

In actual experience, I have seen a very hard working new trader give up and rotate to premium selling. He got hit hard and it was an excellent lesson.

作者: sec2100 時間: 2019-1-23 20:25
開二個腦洞的操作哲學:

For anyone that believes there is only one way to make consistent profits in the market, they are wrong. There are many, YOU the trader have to develop a method that works best for yourself, and hone it, trust it, and ultimately become so good at deploying this methodology that trading becomes boring. Ultimately for the stay at home self employed trader - your trading should have minimal impact on you emotionally as your equity constantly grows month after month.

The block for all traders is FEAR, after they have developed a methodology. The fear of putting on a trade because you might lose money, the fear that the market is going to move against you immediately because it knows you are about to put on a trade. So let me drill this into your head: the market is not a sentient being, it has no idea you Mr. Retail Trader exist, further the market knows nothing about your entries on the random time or tick chart or bars you are using, all the market does is move, its up to you the trader to find a trend and enter in the same direction and not get stopped out.

And why are you treating every trade like its a life and death situation? Why are you moving your stops because you have to win on THIS trade? Every trade is a random event, again it should not impact you emotionally. If you move your stop even one time, you are doing this business completely wrong. A small loss is cost of doing business, there will be many fat juicy trends in the future for you to make money - understand this, drill this into your thick head.

You won't GET IT one day, but after a prolonged time of trading correctly by never ever BREAKING YOUR RULES and becoming okay with taking a small loss and letting your winners run - which is very hard to do - then you can make consistent money in the markets.

作者: sec2100 時間: 2019-1-23 20:32
I had many AHA moments in my life (followed by UGH moments), I wiped out once my account, I got many times frustrated (and got motivated again), so I stayed. But the huge problem for which nobody has an answer (at least if you exclude hindsight) is: should I continue and work hard? Or should I stop as it will never work? Will I ever have success?
Working hard and long does not guarantee any success. You only can know in hindsight that it was good or bad to continue. For me it was good, but it looked a few times very ugly.

Essential, and more important then hard working, is finding an edge, and for that out of the box thinking is more efficient then hard working. Most people worked harder than many billionaires, but these billionaires had an original idea and did not have to work hard and long. They achieved in a few years (or sometimes even shorter) things that 99% of people can even never achieve, even if they would hard for a few centuries (Google, Facebook, Twitter,Whatsapp...).

(有點類似自營家說的: 天道不一定酬勤，要找到長期能獲勝的方法比較重要)

作者: chinan 時間: 2019-1-23 20:57
啊哈!

早些年我用統計來做下單依據,現在用盤感來下單.

我大概看到了樹木，蝴蝶和松鼠了。

作者: sec2100 時間: 2019-1-23 21:17

chinan 發表於 2019-1-23 20:57
啊哈!

早些年我用統計來做下單依據,現在用盤感來下單.

chinan，我現在也用盤感定多空，也常常去植物園看花、松鼠、只是蝴蝶比較少。

作者: ant1964 時間: 2019-1-24 08:34
幫主希望我們多學點英文啦

作者: EntrepreneurOPs 時間: 2019-1-24 08:42

chinan 發表於 2019-1-23 20:57
啊哈!

早些年我用統計來做下單依據,現在用盤感來下單.

羨慕您的境界
我自覺還待在見林不見樹的階段
難怪年報酬10%是我的目標
差神人還是太多了

作者: chinan 時間: 2019-1-24 09:09
本帖最後由 chinan 於 2019-1-24 09:15 編輯

EntrepreneurOPs 發表於 2019-1-24 08:42
羨慕您的境界
我自覺還待在見林不見樹的階段
難怪年報酬10%是我的目標

自營大這樣統計才是最好的! 風險報酬一體兩面.

我也很羨慕神人 !! 我本身是懶了!

作者: Jamesybybl 時間: 2019-1-24 09:33
But if you keep working and studying long enough, you will wake up one day and it will all make sense. You will realize that you don't know anything. You don't know what the market will do today or tomorrow.

這句話太有感覺了~~現在發現自己什麼都不懂，想說乾脆做一個平衡投資組合buy and hold好了。然後去靠賣這個維生，告訴別人說我學了好多，結果什麼都不懂，還是buy and hold好了.....

作者: ant1964 時間: 2019-1-24 10:50
本帖最後由 ant1964 於 2019-1-24 11:00 編輯

講得很好啊
it's all math, statistics, and managing your emotions.
但他是 naked premium selling
我也不同意,那非常危險

作者: sec2100 時間: 2019-1-24 15:41

ant1964 發表於 2019-1-24 10:50
講得很好啊
it's all math, statistics, and managing your emotions.
但他是 naked premium selling

裸賣不見得一定危險，口數大才危險。當然，以心理面而言，裸賣Put非常危險，但是，實質上，大口數，即使有價差，損失也很大。

作者: EntrepreneurOPs 時間: 2019-1-24 17:13
本帖最後由 EntrepreneurOPs 於 2019-1-24 17:14 編輯

sec2100 發表於 2019-1-24 15:41
裸賣不見得一定危險，口數大才危險。當然，以心理面而言，裸賣Put非常危險，但是，實質上，大口數，即使 ...

我支持這種說法
我一路從2007年的純裸賣, 到後來的比例式, 一直都有裸賣的部位, 直到去年的0206被calls & puts皆漲停嚇到後, 才很少裸賣我常在實單測試時, 手單口數小的話, 都恣意地做, 沒考慮太多

作者: i555 時間: 2019-3-3 18:41
SPAN 取消後 , 以後崩盤 CALL不會再大漲了吧?? 大家怎麼看?

作者: sec2100 時間: 2019-3-3 20:39

i555 發表於 2019-3-3 18:41
SPAN 取消後 , 以後崩盤 CALL不會再大漲了吧?? 大家怎麼看?

期交所會推動態退單，不會再有0206這種台灣經驗了。但是，崩盤時Call大漲的情況，仍有可能發生，只是不會是全面性的。

作者: Isaacwu994 時間: 2019-3-5 17:58
（就四種基本策略來說）短期而言，裸賣Put是最危險的，但長期而言，裸賣Put是最安全的。

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