I finally read the original paper by Dunning and Kruger where they present the studies and discuss the implications.
The general description is pretty intuitive - someone who is incompetent at something is usually unable to recognize their own incompetence. However, the paper is full of various goodies that are corollary to the main effect. For example, incompetent group not only overestimated their ability, but also their ability to re-evaluate themselves when presented with evidence (i.e. results from other participants). Very good and useful read, both as an insight into the crowd mentality as well as to better understand your own shortcomings as a trader.
In many domains in life, success and satisfaction depend on knowledge, wisdom, or savvy in knowing which rules to follow and which strategies to pursue.
文章中也說出了這段話，值得交易員警惕:
When people are incompetent in the strategies they adopt to achieve success and satisfaction, they suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompentence robs them of the ability to realize it.