標題: 中國變的無法投資(UNinvestable)，作者把中概股出的差不多了 [打印本頁] 作者: sec2100 時間: 2021-9-2 23:57 標題: 中國變的無法投資(UNinvestable)，作者把中概股出的差不多了 https://seekingalpha.com/article ... ninvestable-for-now 作者: sec2100 時間: 2021-9-2 23:58
Conclusion
The era in which Americans were allowed to invest in rapidly growing China companies and profit from their growth has likely come to an end. There are also questions about the future ability of American companies to profit from selling to Chinese markets. For the moment, China is uninvestable for Americans. That may be the least of it.
While I sold the iShares MSCI China Small-Cap ETF, I kept the following three ETFs that have China exposure: iShares Emerging Markets Dividend ETF (DVYE), the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend ETF (DGS), and the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend ETF (DEM). All three show a lower China concentration than they did a few months ago. In each case, the percentage invested in China is below 20%. I have looked around for an alternative to these ETFs closer to zero China, but I haven't come up with one. I'm now thinking about a combination of country ETFs. Meanwhile, the ETFs I own are approaching their old highs, suggesting that other holders aren't concerned just yet. That gives me a little time to think. If I come up with an alternative I'll do an article about it.
One lingering worry about the above three - DYVE, DGS, and DEM - is that their Taiwan holdings are significant. Taiwan is in fact the number one holding of DGS and DEM (for DVYE it's Russia). Taiwan is an absolutely wonderful country with great technology companies, not just Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), the largest and best semiconductor company in the world. There's also a smaller tier of tech companies you have probably never heard of.
I must confess, though, that I am concerned about the future of Taiwan. Taiwan is likely at the top of Li Jinping's foreign policy list. You would think Beijing and Taipei would work out some arrangement in which mainland China would benefit from the capitalist virtues of Taiwan, but that's what you might have thought about Hong Kong as well. For Xi Jinping absorbing Taiwan would serve to complete China's redemption from the "Century of Humiliation." China would be equipped to reassert its position at the center of the world.
What exactly are we going to do if China moves to take Taiwan by force? Let's hope the US regime in place when it comes to the crisis, has both backbone and subtlety. It's possible that a stern warning backed by a couple of carrier groups in the region would deter a Chinese attempt at outright military annexation, but it would be a mistake to take the threat lightly. The trouble with US military support is the fear that it would lead to attacks on bases on the Chinese mainland. That's the risk Truman fired MacArthur for proposing, and the world is a lot more dangerous today.
Let's hope none of the worst case scenarios come to pass. I'll stick to the suggestion that it's a good idea, for now, to avoid investing in China.