It’s hard to predict exactly when the supply and demand sides will even out, partly because that will depend on how quickly consumers buy new fuel-efficient cars and EVs.
In 2022, vehicles that run on full or partial electricity were poised to account for more than 17% of US auto sales, up from 3.3% six years ago, according to researcher LMC Automotive. But so far, EVs account for less than 1% of all vehicles on the road.
Cutting fuel demand is a long game. To put in perspective how much time it takes for the fleet to turn over: Even if all cars sold in the US today are EVs, it will take an estimated nine years for EVs to replace just half the cars on US roads, according to John Eichberger, executive director of the Fuels Institute.