未來無法預測，只能管好自己

sec2100

sle，美國資深衍生性商品交易員，叫大家沒事不要亂交易，沒有不要做預測


I doubt anyone gets there easy (I know a few professional musicians). It's the "swan effect" - while it looks like the swan is gliding effortlessly, his legs are paddling frantically under the surface.

Trading is hard because you are making predictions. That's hard enough.

Trading is hard because you are predicting how the crowd is going to react to the future, which is even harder.

Trading is hard because, unlike investing, it's naturally adversarial. You are competing with a bunch of other players that are all trying hard to separate you and your dollars.

Trading is hard because even if you have a statistical edge, the path dependency might knock you out.

What did I miss?

sec2100

像機器一樣思考和交易


Positive mindset comes from positive expectancy . Most people think their problems are emotions , losing is emotional no doubt . But i think most peoples issues come from a lack of an emperically proven rules based edge that is repeatable . You probably dont need Mark Douglas , most likely you need some sort of quantitative , systematic training . Maths

Every trader new or old should read
Thinking, Fast and Slow — By Daniel Kahneman
You need to have an idea of what to do before it happens , thinking logically in the moment is difficult . All important decisions should not be made under stress . Know what you will do under a set of circumstances before it happens , be a machine with no prejudice or biases . Fear and anger have no place in trading

sec2100

為什麼交易特別難?



The first reason is because there is a finite amount of money. You can't create money in the market, it has to come from someone else's pocket (unless you are investing in cooperate retained earnings).

Then you have to think how the market evolves. The smart people will make money and grow while the not as smart people will die out. So you are trading in a place that is dominated by the smartest people/computers.

Lastly, from reading alot of comments on this site, people are trying to ski with a snowboard. Of course that will be hard! You should not trade in an enviornment/ a strategy where you do not have the right tools. So many people want to become day traders using tools/ideas from the 1970's. Imagine doing the electrical work in a house with a screw driver vs a plug in drill vs a cordless 18 brush Milwaukee. The guy using the screw driver will be like "damn this is hard" while the guy using the cordless 18 brush Milwaukee will be working on the second home and most likely his second (much better looking) wife.

Ps. Emotions are so last century, I think that is the least of a modern traders problems