阿里巴巴的長夜將盡
如下:本帖最後由 sec2100 於 2021-10-3 19:51 編輯
China's GDP is expected to grow at a CAGR above 5% through 2026 whereas the USA's will be below 2%.
Alibaba is the leader in China's cloud computing market. China's cloud market is 10.8% the size of the USA's and has a five year CAGR of 61% compared to 24% in the USA.
Alibaba's AliExpress (如下方網頁) plays a critical role in the global drop shipping industry, which has a forecast CAGR of 28.8% through 2025.
Alibaba has global ambitions to deliver (often very cheap) products anywhere in the world within 72 hours.
China's e-commerce sector is forecast to grow at 6.65% through 2025. As a market leader with fast growing horizontals including FinTech, Alibaba will likely grow faster than this.
Alibaba's revenue CAGR is projected by analysts to be above 24% for the next three years. https://www.aliexpress.com/?src=google&albch=fbrnd&acnt=304-410-9721&albcp=2068664807&albag=79246744747&slnk=&trgt=aud-826855890904%3Akwd-14802285088&plac=&crea=367988956718&netw=g&device=c&mtctp=e&memo1=&albbt=Google_7_fbrnd&albagn=888888&isSmbActive=false&isSmbAutoCall=false&needSmbHouyi=false&gclid=CjwKCAjwqeWKBhBFEiwABo_XBsbHde4nnLX9iM-D1uQwJhBP1BH2qOEkEykUsdn-leeSCEhE7vdl0BoC_4UQAvD_BwE&aff_fcid=adb4f163afb94f4f900f15447b8e6727-1633261744527-02113-UneMJZVf&aff_fsk=UneMJZVf&aff_platform=aaf&sk=UneMJZVf&aff_trace_key=adb4f163afb94f4f900f15447b8e6727-1633261744527-02113-UneMJZVf&terminal_id=8823d96717c140ba9568d527d5dc76ae All of these growth drivers are still intact despite the CCP's crackdown. Chinese citizens continue to use Alibaba's marketplaces and other products. Many users probably aren't even aware of the stock price action.
Also, note that these growth drivers are relatively unique to Alibaba. That is, there's no developed market company that's expected to play a meaningful role in China's e-commerce, FinTech, or cloud computing market. Thus, while Alibaba carries unique risks, it also offers unique potential and can be a useful diversification tool.
For perspective, a 15% CAGR will double a stock in 5 years if multiples are steady while a 26% CAGR will double it in 3 years. Thus, we can roughly estimate that Alibaba could double in the next three years if analyst estimates are correct and its multiple doesn't contract further. This estimate ignores the impact of buybacks and ignores that Alibaba's growth in the next year is projected to be 35% before moderating to 24-25%, but it also doesn't consider that earnings are projected to grow more slowly than revenue. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457972-alibaba-an-exercise-in-long-term-investing 有人離開阿里，捨不得阿里，又回來了。
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