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樓主 |
發表於 2021-10-3 19:54:04
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All of these growth drivers are still intact despite the CCP's crackdown. Chinese citizens continue to use Alibaba's marketplaces and other products. Many users probably aren't even aware of the stock price action.
Also, note that these growth drivers are relatively unique to Alibaba. That is, there's no developed market company that's expected to play a meaningful role in China's e-commerce, FinTech, or cloud computing market. Thus, while Alibaba carries unique risks, it also offers unique potential and can be a useful diversification tool.
For perspective, a 15% CAGR will double a stock in 5 years if multiples are steady while a 26% CAGR will double it in 3 years. Thus, we can roughly estimate that Alibaba could double in the next three years if analyst estimates are correct and its multiple doesn't contract further. This estimate ignores the impact of buybacks and ignores that Alibaba's growth in the next year is projected to be 35% before moderating to 24-25%, but it also doesn't consider that earnings are projected to grow more slowly than revenue. |
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發表於 2021-10-3 19:36:25
