Nero's excessive probability-consciousness in his profession somehow did not register fully into his treatment of physical risk. For Nero's helicopter crashed as he was landing it near Bettersea Park on a windy day. He was alone in it. In the end the black swan got its man.
其實坦雷伯(telab)寫這句話時,自己的邏輯也不是很清楚。既然他都說是windy day了,就條件機率而言,本來就比較會出事,既然如此,可以預期的條件,就不是黑天鵝事件,所以,最後一句話: in the end the black swan got its man顯然是錯誤的結論。