達克效應(Dunning-Kruger Effect)對交易的影響

sec2100

I finally read the original paper by Dunning and Kruger where they present the studies and discuss the implications.

The general description is pretty intuitive - someone who is incompetent at something is usually unable to recognize their own incompetence. However, the paper is full of various goodies that are corollary to the main effect. For example, incompetent group not only overestimated their ability, but also their ability to re-evaluate themselves when presented with evidence (i.e. results from other participants). Very good and useful read, both as an insight into the crowd mentality as well as to better understand your own shortcomings as a trader.

http://psych.colorado.edu/~vanboven/teaching/p7536_heurbias/p7536_readings/kruger_dunning.pdf

資料來源:sle/elitetrader.com

這篇文章一開始就說了一段和交易有關的話，跟選擇幫成員分享：

In many domains in life, success and satisfaction depend on knowledge, wisdom, or savvy in knowing which rules to follow and which strategies to pursue.

文章中也說出了這段話，值得交易員警惕:
When people are incompetent in the strategies they adopt to achieve success and satisfaction, they suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompentence robs them of the ability to realize it.


所以有時候，知道自己的能力不足，並且離開殘酷的選擇權市場，對自己也是一種提升。