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本帖最後由 sec2100 於 2019-10-13 08:50 編輯
I guess you could buy and hold, or trade, UVXY and make money - but it’s always about timing. If recession doesn’t materialize soon enough then you’d lose due to decay. But possibly a good alternative could be to buy and hold LEAP SPX or SPY options: puts or put spreads or butterflies, where you can at least control what level of SPX you’re aiming at and then just wait until it gets there.
With UVXY you just can’t visualize where it will be and what your P&L may be when SPX hits 2000, for example. But with SPX LEAP puts you have pretty good control of the SPX price level, time, and P&L - for example when buying a 2500-2400 put spread for 2021, you can figure out exactly how much money you’d make.
Btw, look at how VXX and UVXY behaved last December, how/whether you’d make money, and how much “better” you could do if that downtrend continued consistently for couple more weeks (which may not happen during a recession anyway, as things may be just shaky for a year+).
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/t ... g-recession.336827/
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