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SB這個人是裸賣選擇權者,但下面他這文章寫的很好。

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樓主
發表於 2019-1-23 20:00:52 | 只看該作者 回帖獎勵 |正序瀏覽 |閱讀模式

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本帖最後由 sec2100 於 2019-1-23 20:07 編輯



我的導讀:


以下是他在elitetrader.com發表的一篇文章,他的文章常常引起很多人討論,正反兩面皆有。我觀察他一陣子了,他的娛樂性相當夠。




Fellow traders,


Never give up. If you study long enough, stay small, don't lose all of your capital, and seek wisdom from those who have been successful, one day you will have the "aha" moment. It's that moment when you no longer see the forest, but you actually see the trees and the butterflies, and the squirrels.

Unfortunately, most people will never be around long enough to have their own "aha" moment. They will either blow out their account or get frustrated and quit. But for a precious few, pressing onward will be a priceless transformation of thought and process.

Trading is hard. To complicate this, you search around for information and you'll find plenty of advice from the 99% who don't know what they're doing. Then they'll try to sell you a strategy or a signal and you so want to learn this stuff, that you open your wallet to the latest, greatest strategy or guru.

You'll eventually chase the rabbit down the technical analysis hole. Once you check in, you never check out! Beware! That's a dangerous and never ending hole.

You'll chase new and shiny things and new and shiny people. You'll spend hours on youtube searching for the holy grail. It doesn't exist.

But if you keep working and studying long enough, you will wake up one day and it will all make sense. You will realize that you don't know anything. You don't know what the market will do today or tomorrow. Be at peace with this realization. It's okay. It is very liberating to finally arrive at this conclusion.

Back testing, paper trading, studying, watching videos, listening to podcasts . . . all of these can be helpful and engaging. But then the day comes when it all seems to click. This is not to say that you don't have losing trades. We all have losers. But you learn to embrace your losers and realize that they are just part of this wonderful game. You start putting the probabilities in your favor. You realize that let your winners run and cut your losers early is the same old garbage recycled by every so-called "expert."

In the end, it's all math, statistics, and managing your emotions. That's it. Math and statistics can give you the edge. Controlling your emotions will allow you to stay strong and committed when it seems the math and statistics are failing.

Look at the picture long enough and you'll get the answer you've been waiting on.

Happy Trading!

Sweet Bobby




出處:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-aha-moment.329021/
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16#
發表於 2019-3-5 17:58:50 | 只看該作者
(就四種基本策略來說)短期而言,裸賣Put是最危險的,但長期而言,裸賣Put是最安全的。
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15#
 樓主| 發表於 2019-3-3 20:39:39 | 只看該作者
i555 發表於 2019-3-3 18:41
SPAN 取消後 , 以後崩盤 CALL不會再大漲了吧?? 大家怎麼看?

期交所會推動態退單,不會再有0206這種台灣經驗了。但是,崩盤時Call大漲的情況,仍有可能發生,只是不會是全面性的。
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14#
發表於 2019-3-3 18:41:43 | 只看該作者
SPAN 取消後 , 以後崩盤 CALL不會再大漲了吧?? 大家怎麼看?
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13#
發表於 2019-1-24 17:13:18 | 只看該作者
本帖最後由 EntrepreneurOPs 於 2019-1-24 17:14 編輯
sec2100 發表於 2019-1-24 15:41
裸賣不見得一定危險,口數大才危險。當然,以心理面而言,裸賣Put非常危險,但是,實質上,大口數,即使 ...

我支持這種說法
我一路從2007年的純裸賣, 到後來的比例式, 一直都有裸賣的部位, 直到去年的0206被calls & puts皆漲停嚇到後, 才很少裸賣我常在實單測試時, 手單口數小的話, 都恣意地做, 沒考慮太多
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12#
 樓主| 發表於 2019-1-24 15:41:17 | 只看該作者
ant1964 發表於 2019-1-24 10:50
講得很好啊
it's all math, statistics, and managing your emotions.
但他是 naked premium selling

裸賣不見得一定危險,口數大才危險。當然,以心理面而言,裸賣Put非常危險,但是,實質上,大口數,即使有價差,損失也很大。
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11#
發表於 2019-1-24 10:50:12 | 只看該作者
本帖最後由 ant1964 於 2019-1-24 11:00 編輯

講得很好啊
it's all math, statistics, and managing your emotions.
但他是 naked premium selling
我也不同意,那非常危險
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10#
發表於 2019-1-24 09:33:40 | 只看該作者
But if you keep working and studying long enough, you will wake up one day and it will all make sense. You will realize that you don't know anything. You don't know what the market will do today or tomorrow.

這句話太有感覺了~~現在發現自己什麼都不懂,想說乾脆做一個平衡投資組合buy and hold好了。然後去靠賣這個維生,告訴別人說我學了好多,結果什麼都不懂,還是buy and hold好了.....
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9#
發表於 2019-1-24 09:09:24 | 只看該作者
本帖最後由 chinan 於 2019-1-24 09:15 編輯
EntrepreneurOPs 發表於 2019-1-24 08:42
羨慕您的境界
我自覺還待在見林不見樹的階段
難怪年報酬10%是我的目標

自營大這樣統計才是最好的! 風險報酬一體兩面.

我也很羨慕神人 !! 我本身是懶了!
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