all in on China?/和美國背道而馳的中國貨幣政策

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/c ... akes-000000896.html


There are plenty of investors, analysts and strategists staking their reputations on a 2022 rally in Chinese markets. Since the end of last year, Societe Generale SA, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., BlackRock Inc., UBS Group AG and HSBC Holdings Plc have all turned overweight on the nation’s equities. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic in December recommended going all in on China this year, predicting the MSCI China Index would surge almost 40%.

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There’s also no real playbook for what happens to markets when the PBOC diverges this much from the Federal Reserve on policy. China’s central bank has rarely cut interest rates during U.S. tightening cycles -- according to one economist, the last time was in 1999 when China was effectively shut to most international investors.

“There is clearly a need to introduce more measures to pre-empt systemic risks, and we expect further policy fine-tuning in the coming weeks,” wrote DBS Group currency and credit strategists in a recent note. “Volatility remains the theme.”

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Such optimism has been repeatedly tested. The Hang Seng China gauge slumped to an almost six-year low earlier this month and the yield on Chinese junk dollar bonds surged above 20% as risks to the economy mounted.

“Many people in the market were too hopeful and too early calling for a strong rebound,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist and head of research at Bocom International.