負面新聞主人翁 Paul Tudor Jones 和我文章裡常提到的 Van K. Tharp, 都是早年 (1980年代) 曾經入選操作經典 --- Market Wizard 這本書裡被訪問過的成功交易者 (想學習就要學這種真正的贏家, 而不是神人老師的胡亂吹), 相隔幾十年過後, 目前仍舊保持成功而活躍於金融交易圈, 光以操作這點來論, 是很值得佩服與學習的人物, 以下便擷取一些我認為他早年受訪 (攻擊性操作的藝術 The Art of Aggressive Trading) 時的關鍵談話, 大部分都加上我的中文評論:
1. First of all, never play macho man with the market. Second, never overtrade.
第二點說的絕不交易過量, 在台灣的期權市場裡, 有很多人都是犯這種錯誤而爆倉畢業; [不過量交易] 需要管理, 但值得管理的資金要有一定程度的大 (個人認為至少要NTD百萬), 可是神人魯蛇為了廣收學生教學賺錢, 鼓吹小資10萬台幣就可以月賺10%
2. I had to learn discipline and money management. It was a cathartic experience for me, in the sense that I went to the edge, questioned my very ability as a trader, and decided that I was not going to quit. I was determined to come back and fight. I decided that I was going to become very disciplined and businesslike about my trading.
3. Q: What is the most prominent fallacy in the public's perception about markets?
A: That markets can be manipulated. That there is some group on Wall Street that controls price action in the markets.
台股的操作者也老是認為, 股價和指數是主力或黑手在控制的, Jones認為這是最大的錯誤觀念; 確實很多個股都似乎有股莫名的力量在控制, 可是操作時必須刻意忽略這點, 當作這些現象不存在, 只要持續地用符合自己個性和條件的規則去做, 最終會獲得你應有的報酬; 試圖揣摩作手的意圖, 你不他本人, 確定猜得對? 倒不如乾脆不做這類煩心又不確保的事情, 該怎麼做就怎麼做
4. I want to make sure that I never have a double-digit loss in any month.
資金要分批投入, 一次就給他好野(all in)的成功率永遠只能是50%
延伸閱讀: [明天下雨機率30%] 給交易者的思考
5. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well. Never trade in situations where you don't have control. For example, I don't risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading.
機率的根本是長期與多次! 我們是在做交易(雖然要應用一些賭博的概念與技巧來得點優勢), 不是賭博(純運氣沒優勢)
6. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in. There is nothing better than a fresh start.
市場永遠都在, 操作不順時, 最好暫時離開沉澱, 不要爛賭
7. Don't be too concerned about where you got into a position. The only relevant question is whether you are bullish or bearish on the position that day. Always think of your entry point as last night's close.
我常提的 --- 買賣點沒那麼重要
8. Quicker and more defensive. I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money.
先想輸要怎麼處理再去想賺
9. I view anything that has happened up to the present point in time as history. I really don't care about the mistake I made three seconds ago in the market. What I care about is what I am going to do from the next moment on. I try to avoid any emotional attachment to a market. I avoid letting my trading opinions be influenced by comments I may have made on the record about a market.
能夠以操作為生最重要的關鍵點在此
10. I know from studying history that credit eventually kills all great societies. Reagan made sure that the economy would be great during his term in office by borrowing our way into prosperity. We borrowed against the future, and soon we will have to pay.
任何偉大的社會最終將被信用問題摧毀, 歐巴馬政府用印鈔等...胡亂干預的手段, 比雷根政府時期嚴重N倍, 也是早晚要付出代價的
11. Q: Do you use trading systems at all?
A: We have tested every system under the sun and, amazingly, we have found one that actually works well.
Q: What type of realm does it fall into: contrarian? trend following?
A: Trend following. When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.
順勢系統總是成功交易者的優先選擇, 波動變大的方向即是未來的方向
12. I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.
股價比基本面先行
13. When I trade, I don't just use a price stop, I also use a time stop. If I think a market should break, and it doesn't, I will often get out even if I am not losing any money.
要價格停損, 也要時間停損, 該發生的事情沒發生, 肯定有鬼
14. Q: Do you believe that is because it takes talent to be a good trader?
A: I never thought that before, but I am starting to believe that now. One of my weaknesses is that I always tend to be too optimistic, particularly about the ability of other people to succeed.
我所寫的文裡反覆提到: 有志交易者的第一件事 是認識自己, 文章裡面我也借用Tharp的評估結果畫了一條標準線, 低於這個標準的人, 意味著您的優缺點若用於操作上, 即使做到發揮強項 & 降低弱項帶來的損失, 很可能還是無法達到 [賺大賠小] 的原則, 代表您不適合做操作, 專心於您自己的本業才是最賺的, 畢竟操作這一行和其他行業一樣, 不是每個人都合適進來的; 但神人老輸為了賺學費, 只要願意繳錢給他的學生他都收
15. Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
16. Closely monitor the performance of his entire portfolio in real-time. If his total equity drops 1 to 2 percent during a single trading session, he might well liquidate all of his positions instantaneously to cut his risk. "It is always easier to get back in than to get out"
注意人家的單位是1%到2%, 不像神人老輸動輒幾十%地大開大闔, 也意味著其實想操作成功很大的要素在於 --- 資金要夠大(ppt笑稱: 本多終勝), 如此容錯率才會夠高, 做錯乃交易人的日常, 神人的境界畢竟只在雲端
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