微軟併ATVI的成功率只有57%

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By my back of the envelope calculation, the deal could generate a positive net present value of $4.4 billion. That uses Microsoft’s 7.5% weighted average cost of capital and assumes that after the deal closes it can maintain a 10 year average annual growth in free cash flow of 25% — which is the rate at which Activision’s revenues grow in 2020.

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This deal is aimed at increasing Microsoft’s share of three industries — two of which are very large and growing rapidly and one which is currently attracting significant investment from leading tech companies:

Videogame publishing. This $40.9 billion industry in the U.S. is forecast to grow at a 5.6% annual rate by 2026 and enjoyed a 27.5% net profit margin in 2021, according to IBISWorld.
Gaming consoles. Deloitte Global predicts that in 2022 the gaming console industry will grow 10% to $81 billion.

Metaverse. While it is little more than a dream right now, Constellation Research “estimates the metaverse economy will be worth $21.7 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 38.6%, as businesses increasingly leverage a mix of augmented and virtual reality to reach customers via avatars, bots and other digital surrogates,” according to the Wall Street Journal.