微軟併ATVI的成功率只有57%

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https://www.reuters.com/markets/ ... darling-2022-01-20/

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This deal is aimed at increasing Microsoft’s share of three industries — two of which are very large and growing rapidly and one which is currently attracting significant investment from leading tech companies:

Videogame publishing. This $40.9 billion industry in the U.S. is forecast to grow at a 5.6% annual rate by 2026 and enjoyed a 27.5% net profit margin in 2021, according to IBISWorld.
Gaming consoles. Deloitte Global predicts that in 2022 the gaming console industry will grow 10% to $81 billion.

Metaverse. While it is little more than a dream right now, Constellation Research “estimates the metaverse economy will be worth $21.7 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 38.6%, as businesses increasingly leverage a mix of augmented and virtual reality to reach customers via avatars, bots and other digital surrogates,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

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By my back of the envelope calculation, the deal could generate a positive net present value of $4.4 billion. That uses Microsoft’s 7.5% weighted average cost of capital and assumes that after the deal closes it can maintain a 10 year average annual growth in free cash flow of 25% — which is the rate at which Activision’s revenues grow in 2020.

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Evidence that this deal may fall apart is reflected in Activision’s stock price which trades at 87% of Microsoft’s $95 a share in cash offer. Indeed Cowen analysts said this means that “the market appears to be pricing in a roughly 1-in-3 probability that the deal gets blocked,” reported MarketWatch.

Most mergers fail. But the ones that succeed pass four tests. I think Microsoft’s deal to acquire Activision has a decent chance of passing all of them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/pet ... al/?sh=4f8916ce2b12

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Moreover, some analysts are calling for government regulators to block the deal. Alex Harman, competition policy advocate for Public Citizen, told MarketWatch. “No way should the Federal Trade Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice permit this merger to proceed. If Microsoft wants to bet on the metaverse, it should invest in new technology, not swallow up a competitor.”

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In addition, there is a decent chance that legal or regulatory action could block the deal. As MarketWatch wrote, Cowen analysts think that Microsoft could look to favor the release of Activision games on its Xbox console over those of rivals such as Sony’s Playstation. This could result in antitrust scrutiny and a lawsuit from Sony — whose shares fell 13% after the deal announcement — seeking to block the deal — at least until it can buy its own videogamer.

Indeed, Cowen analysts do not think Microsoft’s gaming platform rivals will take comfort from Microsoft’s statement that ”Activision Blizzard games are enjoyed on a variety of platforms, and we plan to continue to support those communities moving forward,” wrote MarketWatch.

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“Extending our horizon a bit, this transaction will make our approach to the consumer metaverse even stronger,” Spencer said in a call with investors on Tuesday. “That’s because our vision of the metaverse is based on intersecting global communities rooted in strong franchises. A big part of that is the fact that mobile is the biggest category of gaming, and it’s an area where we’ve not had a major presence before.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles ... isition-51642513147

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The acquisition is subject to closing conditions and regulatory and shareholder approval, and is expected to close in fiscal 2023, the company said. While there may be some regulatory hurdles to clear given the size of the acquisition, Dan Ives of Wedbush expects the deal to ultimately close as Microsoft isn’t under the same scrutiny as some of its tech rivals. Ives said the deal is the largest merger and acquisition deal in tech history.

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“Gaming is the most dynamic and exciting category in entertainment across all platforms today and will play a key role in the development of metaverse platforms,” said Satya Nadella, Microsoft chairman and CEO, in a press release Tuesday.

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WHAT BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE SAYS:

“Picking up Activision would further strengthen Game Pass and get Microsoft much closer to Sony. Game Pass has over 25 million subscribers, and Activision’s Blizzard has about 400 million active players around the globe. The deal could take over a year of scrutiny but has a good shot of clearance, according to BI’s antitrust expert.” -- Anurag Rana, BI senior software industry analyst.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/a ... billion-gaming-deal