不交易日有無風險，選擇權價格是否計入?

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https://www.elitetrader.com/et/t ... er-weekends.351639/

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上開討論區原PO，在看到不同對於該現象討論區的文章後，得出的心得:

假日前的選擇權有比較貴，但這比較貴的價格是反應不交易日的不確定性，而非天下掉下來的禮物。原文如下:


Thanks for replying! It sounds like they came to the same conclusion - while decay may be there, it's compensated/overshadowed by the added volatility over the weekends.

"As it turns out, there is risk that exists over the weekend, because the standard deviation range for weekends (Friday to Monday) during the period studied was +/- 0.75%. The hosts basically extrapolated from the data that a given option’s premium already accounts for weekends.

Therefore, there doesn't appear to much advantage (if any) to deploying a strategy that focuses on adding theta just for weekends - for example, placing a trade on Friday with the intention of taking it off on Monday."

Animal

這樣是合理的，雖然有隱含time decay，但theta僅是其一之因子，在兩個仍可能有極端風險的未交易日，預期心理導致vega增加是可被理解的。直致週一，若風平浪靜，vega and theta一併反映在option value上。
賣方尋求的是安逸，買方要的則是興浪，才能各取所需