印鈔、利率、美金、就業、通膨、原物料 issues

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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2 ... om-yields-peak-soon


金價和名目公債殖利率呈反比

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This would likely coincide with the Fed instituting its “Yield Curve Control” policy, or put simply, cap and drive down yields by buying US Treasury Bonds across the yield curve.

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In order to do this, the Fed would have to print new dollars to buy the bonds, increasing their balance sheet and further weakening the dollar. Just look back at what happened to the dollar since its peak in March 2020, when the Fed began printing trillions of new dollars.

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實質利率會續跌，有利金價表現。不利美元。至於名目利率，fed會刻意壓低，讓實質利率更差  (實質利率=名目利率-通膨率，費雪公式)。這是上開文章的重點，非我見也。

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人民現在手上這麼多錢，就業又變好，股市又好，大家都想消費，會有通膨疑慮。美金貶值的話，會不會有輸入性通膨? 還是全球輸往美國的美金報價也都不敢上調? 如此，各國的公司營收轉成當地貨幣會變少，只能靠增加的量抵銷?

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https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui? ... amp;id=p21831636765


sp500公司現金殖利率-美國十年期公債殖利率

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弱勢美元對美國出口好，但中國不買帳。


https://www.smh.com.au/business/ ... -found-refresh=true

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設中國買美債或外匯存底為美金，美金貶值對中國人應該不利吧，蓋他們要換回人民幣時，換的更少。所以弱勢美元會減少他國持有美元或美債的動機，加深了美元貶值?

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https://www.zerohedge.com/market ... -sees-trouble-ahead


The (very visible) invisible hand behind all this excess is, in Singer's (correct) opinion, The Fed (and the rest of the world's central banking copycats) as he echoes Michael 'Big Short' Burry's recent warnings of out of control "rampant inflation" that will shock policy makers, stock pickers and bond investors, alike.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/market ... p-panic-bond-market


Long story short, JPM agrees with Nomura that at 10y maturities, it appears the shorter-term signals for USTs have reached levels where mean reversion or profit taking signals by CTAs should  start kicking in, while the average of shorter-term and longer-term signals are approaching those levels. That said, while there are signs that the shorter-term signal for 10y USTs and Bunds reaching extreme levels has triggered some CTAs to reduce short duration exposure, for the signals to more decisively reach oversold conditions for CTAs could take 10y UST yields reaching 1.6% and for 5y to reach 1.0%. This means that more yield momentum chasing higher could be in store in the coming days