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Intel's massive investment in new fabs will pay off, if and only if Intel reaches technological parity with TSMC and Samsung. Intel is currently behind by at least 1 1/2 nodes. Intel has not implemented EUVL in high volume manufacturing. Intel must catch up to TSMC by flawlessly executing 5 and 3 by early 2024. Intel will not only need to purchase high NA EUV tools but also implement them into HVM very quickly for Intel.
Where will Intel acquire the skills to do this? There are 2 companies which have most of the people trained in EUV usage. These are TSMC and Samsung. How will Intel gain these skills? Without these skills, how will Intel catch up to TSMC?
I have been on teams which built fabs at TSMC and Intel. What I saw was Intel awash in unnecessary bureaucracy. Paperwork seems to run Intel. TSMC, on the other hand, was very lean. Lean organizations mean quick decision making and rapid action. Lean organizations empower people to solve problems. Bureaucracies run on an endless stream of reports, white papers and meetings.
Perhaps Gelsinger can re-envision Intel as a much leaner, action oriented company. I hope so. We need competition to drive the semiconductor industry forward.
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