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阿里巴巴過了完美風暴嗎?

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發表於 2022-1-8 12:00:43 | 顯示全部樓層 |閱讀模式

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本帖最後由 sec2100 於 2022-1-8 12:18 編輯

Lazada, headquartered in Singapore and active in key markets Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines, is already the seventh-largest e-Commerce platform in the world regarding monthly active users/MAUs and the brand has considerable potential to grow users and rise up in the rankings of top global e-Commerce companies. The reason for this is that Lazada's e-Commerce penetration rate in Southeast Asia is relatively low at 11% and the market potential is far from being exhausted.
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 樓主| 發表於 2022-1-8 12:08:08 | 顯示全部樓層
https://seekingalpha.com/article ... -deal-of-the-decade


I don't typically follow Charlie Munger, but I double my stake in Alibaba (BABA) when I do. I began investing in Alibaba in 2015 around the $70-$85 region. The investment was going great for a while, but everything went south in late 2020. Alibaba topped out at about $320, and a perfect storm of harmful elements has plagued the company's share price ever since.
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 樓主| 發表於 2022-1-8 12:09:46 | 顯示全部樓層
Alibaba now trades at a rock-bottom 13.5 times 2022's consensus EPS estimates, while the company should continue to provide double-digit revenue growth and deliver substantial EPS expansion in future years. Moreover, the ongoing fears over delisting concerns, Chinese Communist Party ("CCP") intervention, and other variables seem overblown and are likely transitory. Therefore, the company's shares are on sale right now, should not remain depressed for long, and have a high probability of moving considerably higher as the company advances.
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 樓主| 發表於 2022-1-8 12:13:45 | 顯示全部樓層
We see that revenues increased by a very healthy margin last quarter. Total revenues jumped by 29%, while the company's core China commerce business revenues surged by 30% YoY. Even if we exclude the Sun Art acquisition, revenues expanded by about 15% YoY. International sales expanded by 34%, and cloud grew by 33% YoY. Therefore, we see very healthy growth in Alibaba's businesses. Moreover, increased lockdowns should help drive online traffic, and Alibaba can probably surpass the recently lowered and depressed consensus estimate figures.
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 樓主| 發表於 2022-1-8 12:17:46 | 顯示全部樓層
Alibaba's revised EPS estimates are substantially lower than six, three, and even one month ago. However, before Alibaba's issues arose about a year ago, the company beat consensus estimates by an extensive margin. For instance, in 2019 and 2020, Alibaba beat consensus EPS forecasts by an average of approximately 20%-25%. Provided that the company's fundamental issues can prove transitory, Alibaba should return to its trend of surpassing analyst estimates. Moreover, due to the sharp revisions lower in earnings expectations, Alibaba may begin to exceed estimates substantially soon. Upward earnings revisions could follow, reflecting very positively on Alibaba's stock.
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 樓主| 發表於 2022-1-8 12:48:59 | 顯示全部樓層
有人估阿里巴巴在2025年股價432元及當時的本益比
baba的未來EPS及本益比.PNG
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 樓主| 發表於 2022-1-9 17:43:48 | 顯示全部樓層
https://seekingalpha.com/article ... rket-a-lesson-again
Lazada, headquartered in Singapore and active in key markets Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines, is already the seventh-largest e-Commerce platform in the world regarding monthly active users/MAUs and the brand has considerable potential to grow users and rise up in the rankings of top global e-Commerce companies. The reason for this is that Lazada's e-Commerce penetration rate in Southeast Asia is relatively low at 11% and the market potential is far from being exhausted.
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 樓主| 發表於 2022-1-9 17:45:37 | 顯示全部樓層
Lazada saw a strong increase in accounts and monthly active users during the pandemic when more sales shifted online. In September 2021, Lazada had 159M MAUs, showing a factor increase of 1.7 X year over an eighteen months period.
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