微軟併ATVI的成功率只有57%

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https://www.reuters.com/markets/ ... darling-2022-01-20/

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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/18/ ... billion-record.html

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Microsoft is also taking advantage of a regulatory environment that has been pressuring Big Tech but has mostly left Microsoft alone. Executives from Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon have in recent years faced the wrath of elected officials, who are concerned about advertising, commerce and mobile data consolidating into too few hands.

While those mega-cap companies have been mostly limited to small acquisitions in tangential markets, Microsoft continues to swing big.

“From a regulatory perspective, MSFT is not under the same level of scrutiny as other tech stalwarts (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google),” wrote Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, in a report. “Ultimately Nadella saw a window to make a major bet on consumer while others are caught in the regulatory spotlight and could not go after an asset like this.”

Still, a deal of this size is sure to raise eyebrows in Washington, D.C., and will test whether Microsoft still maintains such goodwill.

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WHAT BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE SAYS:

“Picking up Activision would further strengthen Game Pass and get Microsoft much closer to Sony. Game Pass has over 25 million subscribers, and Activision’s Blizzard has about 400 million active players around the globe. The deal could take over a year of scrutiny but has a good shot of clearance, according to BI’s antitrust expert.” -- Anurag Rana, BI senior software industry analyst.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/a ... billion-gaming-deal

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“Gaming is the most dynamic and exciting category in entertainment across all platforms today and will play a key role in the development of metaverse platforms,” said Satya Nadella, Microsoft chairman and CEO, in a press release Tuesday.

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The acquisition is subject to closing conditions and regulatory and shareholder approval, and is expected to close in fiscal 2023, the company said. While there may be some regulatory hurdles to clear given the size of the acquisition, Dan Ives of Wedbush expects the deal to ultimately close as Microsoft isn’t under the same scrutiny as some of its tech rivals. Ives said the deal is the largest merger and acquisition deal in tech history.

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“Extending our horizon a bit, this transaction will make our approach to the consumer metaverse even stronger,” Spencer said in a call with investors on Tuesday. “That’s because our vision of the metaverse is based on intersecting global communities rooted in strong franchises. A big part of that is the fact that mobile is the biggest category of gaming, and it’s an area where we’ve not had a major presence before.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles ... isition-51642513147

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In addition, there is a decent chance that legal or regulatory action could block the deal. As MarketWatch wrote, Cowen analysts think that Microsoft could look to favor the release of Activision games on its Xbox console over those of rivals such as Sony’s Playstation. This could result in antitrust scrutiny and a lawsuit from Sony — whose shares fell 13% after the deal announcement — seeking to block the deal — at least until it can buy its own videogamer.

Indeed, Cowen analysts do not think Microsoft’s gaming platform rivals will take comfort from Microsoft’s statement that ”Activision Blizzard games are enjoyed on a variety of platforms, and we plan to continue to support those communities moving forward,” wrote MarketWatch.

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Moreover, some analysts are calling for government regulators to block the deal. Alex Harman, competition policy advocate for Public Citizen, told MarketWatch. “No way should the Federal Trade Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice permit this merger to proceed. If Microsoft wants to bet on the metaverse, it should invest in new technology, not swallow up a competitor.”

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Evidence that this deal may fall apart is reflected in Activision’s stock price which trades at 87% of Microsoft’s $95 a share in cash offer. Indeed Cowen analysts said this means that “the market appears to be pricing in a roughly 1-in-3 probability that the deal gets blocked,” reported MarketWatch.

Most mergers fail. But the ones that succeed pass four tests. I think Microsoft’s deal to acquire Activision has a decent chance of passing all of them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/pet ... al/?sh=4f8916ce2b12