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高盛的投資分析長看空AI

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發表於 2024-7-10 20:34:57 | 顯示全部樓層 |閱讀模式

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Allison Nathan: What odds do you place on AI technology ultimately enhancing the revenues of non-tech companies? And even without revenue expansion, could cost savings still pave a path toward multiple expansion?

Jim Covello: I place low odds on AI-related revenue expansion because I don't think the technology is, or will likely be, smart enough to make employees smarter. Even one of the most plausible use cases of AI, improving search functionality, is much more likely to enable employees to find information faster than enable them to find better information. And if AI’s benefits remain largely limited to efficiency improvements, that probably won’t lead to multiple expansion because cost savings just get arbitraged away. If a company can use a robot to improve efficiency, so can the company’s competitors. So, a company won’t be able to charge more or increase margins.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/t ... -rJ_bU3yHCeg6tiuQ2A
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 樓主| 發表於 2024-7-10 20:40:23 | 顯示全部樓層
Allison Nathan: What does all of this mean for AI investors over the near term, especially since the “picks and shovels” companies most exposed to the AI infrastructure buildout have already run up so far?

Jim Covello: Since the substantial spend on AI infrastructure will continue despite my skepticism, investors should remain invested in the beneficiaries of this spend, in rank order: Nvidia, utilities and other companies exposed to the coming buildout of the power grid to support AI technology, and the hyperscalers, which are spending substantial money themselves but will also garner incremental revenue from the AI buildout. These companies have indeed already run up substantially, but history suggests that an expensive valuation alone won’t stop a company’s stock price from rising further if the fundamentals that made the company expensive in the first place remain intact. I’ve never seen a stock decline only because it’s expensive—a deterioration in fundamentals is almost always the culprit, and only then does valuation come into play.
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 樓主| 發表於 2024-7-10 20:46:50 | 顯示全部樓層
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 樓主| 發表於 2024-7-10 20:57:20 | 顯示全部樓層
"Some people believe that competitors to Nvidia from within the semiconductor industry or from the hyperscalers—Google, Amazon, and Microsoft— themselves will emerge, which is possible. But that's a big leap from where we are today given that chip companies have tried and failed to dethrone Nvidia from its dominant GPU position for the last 10 years. Technology can be so difficult to replicate that no competitors are able to do so, allowing companies to maintain their monopoly and pricing power."
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 樓主| 發表於 6 天前 | 顯示全部樓層
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